usd index

USD Index Chart 29 Oct 2010

This morning’s Q3 advance GDP release from the US which came in as expected, has given the US dollar a further shove to the downside which was reflected in the usd index moving below all four moving averages once again, having initially attempted to rally this morning.  The index is now looking particularly weak once again following the evening star bearish candle pattern of the last three days which saw an initial rise of the index on Tuesday, the potential star formation on Wednesday and a confirmation with yesterday’s wide spread down candle which completed this bearish signal.  With the market’s now awaiting key FED statement, and interest rate decision, today’s GDP number has confirmed the probability that the QE2 programme will commence almost immediately sending the usd index lower, initially to re-test the 76.144 and any break below here will see a re-test of the 74.170 area, last seen in late 2009.  Any breach of this price point could see the index return to 70.79 in the longer term.  The weekly chart confirms this bearish picture with rallies both last week and this week having been firmly squashed, as the 9 week average dives below the 200 week with the 14 week about to follow suit.


USD index forecast - 1st November 2010